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The Architecture
Three systems. One architecture. Each for a failure mode you suspect.
Not a fund. A set of instruments around your existing concentration — diagnostic, hedge, and sandbox — with the advisory and wealth-ladder layers that sequence them over time.
Comparison grid
What each layer does.
Mono spec rows: inputs, runtime, coverage, stated failure mode. Open any for the full product detail.
01 — Core
Tail Risk
The simulation core — ES, VaR, drawdown shape on your actual book.
50,000 paths · 0.8s · 8 regimes
Open product02 — Hedge
Investment Options
The Fail-Safe Circuit: a priced, standing hedge converting open drawdown into capped carry.
floor −20% · carry 0.4–1.0% p.a.
Open product03 — Sequencing
Wealth Ladders
Staged de-risking that respects lock-ups and tax — velocity preserved, tail bounded.
multi-year · lock-up aware
Open productDoctrine
Mark Spitznagel — Strategy
Convexity as a standing discipline, not a market call. Where we align and where we differ.
cost-of-carry framing
Read the noteService
Investment Advisory
Human layer over the instruments — provenance, compliance, and a written record.
documented · evidence-first
Open serviceStart here
The Diagnostic
One run, one document: the shape of your left tail. The entry point to the whole architecture.
Run the DiagnosticWhy insurance-shaped
Three prototypes, one survivor.
Store-of-value, alpha, insurance — the three ways to carry a safe haven. Only the insurance shape nets positive once carry is priced; it is the shape the Fail-Safe Circuit replicates. Explore in the Simulation Lab →
You priced your equity to the cent — so why is your downside still unpriced?
What you are buying
What are you actually buying?
Not a product line. You are buying an exposure-control architecture: a layer that measures, hedges, and stress-tests the concentration sitting in your book.
Each instrument is a module of one system. The diagnostic finds the structural vulnerability, the circuit insulates against it, the engine tests whether the insulation holds.
The cost of no control layer
The cost of holding without a control layer
Most concentrated holders carry 60–90% of liquid net worth in a single ticker or sector. That is not diversification with a tail — it is a single point of failure with no instrumentation. Where a position should be unwound over time rather than hedged in place, we sequence it through staged wealth ladders instead.
Black Monday compiled a 22% drawdown in one session. A lock-up compiles its own over six months. Without a control layer, you discover the magnitude only after it executes.
One architecture
One architecture, three instruments
You do not need three vendors and three logins. You need one system that reads your exposure, writes a hedge against it, and runs it against history before your capital does.
Each instrument exposes its own inputs and outputs — editable, exportable, no black box. The architecture is the product; the instruments are how you operate it.
How they fit together
How they fit together
The System Diagnostic
Compiles the structural risk map of your current allocation — the bugs in your book, named and ranked. It is the entry module of the tail-risk control architecture.
The Fail-Safe Circuit
Programmatic downside protection that executes automatically when correlation breaks down, insulating liquidity without manual intervention. The hedge is built from convex tail-risk options, constructed along the Spitznagel-style payoff logic we document in the research layer.
The Sandbox Engine
Compiles 50,000 extreme macro stress tests against your tech-equity allocation — you do not predict the regime, you run it.
Stated failure rate
The diagnostic returns a false-comfort signal in 4.2% of runs under specific low-liquidity conditions. We publish the limitation rather than bury it.
Where to start
“Which one do I start with?”
The diagnostic, always. The circuit and the engine act on an exposure map — without one, you would be hedging and testing a position you have not yet measured.
The diagnostic is three fields and a 48-hour document. It qualifies your position for the other two; nothing downstream runs blind.
3 fields · 48-hour document · no call, no sequence.
Frequently asked questions
Which tail-risk tool should a concentrated holder start with?
Start with the System Diagnostic. It maps your exposure first, so the hedge and the stress engine act on a measured position rather than a guess. Three fields produce a document in 48 hours.
What does tail-risk portfolio optimization include with Entail?
It includes three modules of one control layer: a diagnostic that maps structural risk, a fail-safe circuit that executes downside protection automatically, and a sandbox engine that runs 50,000 macro stress tests. There is no separate advisory product unless you request direct advisory engagement.
What does it cost to begin?
The diagnostic itself is a fixed-scope deliverable, not a retainer or an assets-under-management fee. Hedge construction is priced against the position it insures, so cost scales with the exposure removed, not the size of your book.
How do the three instruments differ from each other?
The diagnostic measures, the circuit protects, and the engine tests. The diagnostic is a one-time read of your allocation; the circuit is a standing automated hedge; the engine is a repeatable simulation you run against any macro regime you specify.
Is this a fit for a single concentrated position?
Yes — a single concentrated position is the primary case, especially where one ticker or sector holds 60–90% of liquid net worth. The architecture insulates that exposure in place; where the goal is to exit it over time, the staged wealth-ladder approach applies instead.