Home / Risk Analyses
Country & Region
Where the next regime change is priced.
One canvas at the top; instrument below. Each analysis carries mono spec rows — exposure, transmission, time-to-impact — and a stated confidence. No narrative without a number beside it.
Open analyses
Jurisdictions under watch.
Live coverage. Select a jurisdiction for its full spec sheet and transmission map.
CN
China
Property deleveraging · capital-account stress.
exposure HIGH · t-impact 3–9mo
Open analysisUS
USA
Term-premium repricing · fiscal path.
exposure HIGH · t-impact 0–12mo
Open analysisUK
United Kingdom
Gilt fragility · pension-LDI memory.
exposure MED · t-impact 0–6mo
Open analysisFR
France
Sovereign spread · political cycle.
exposure MED · t-impact 3–12mo
Open analysisIT
Italy
BTP-Bund spread · debt service.
exposure MED · t-impact 3–12mo
Open analysisGR
Greece
Re-rating durability · bank balance sheets.
exposure LOW · t-impact 6–18mo
Open analysisPESTL, bank-risk, oil-conflict and sovereign scenarios.
You diversified across tickers. Did you diversify across jurisdictions, or just assume you did?
Country & region
Does geography still diversify you?
In a correlated shock, it stops. Country exposure that looks independent in calm markets converges toward one factor when stress hits — the same way microservices that “fail independently” all share a single database under load.
Each per-country page below is a separate diagnostic of one jurisdiction’s failure modes: rate path, capital-flow fragility, sovereign-balance-sheet stress, and the transmission channels that reach equity.
What it costs
What a hidden country correlation costs
Cross-asset correlations that sit near zero in normal regimes routinely spike above 0.8 in crises — the diversification you priced quietly disappears at exactly the moment you need it. A book that reads as ten uncorrelated positions can behave as one during a sovereign event.
For a holder with 60–90% concentration in a single sector, this is not abstract. Your “tech” position is also a bet on the rate regime, supply chain, and capital controls of the countries your revenue and your custodians sit in.
The index
A map of where your book is exposed
The index treats each country as a module with documented inputs, not a headline. Open the assessment for the jurisdiction your equity, fund domicile, or supply chain actually touches, and read its specific transmission path.
Start with the live country-risk environment for the current regime, then drill into the country whose breakage would reach your position first — most concentrated tech books touch the China supply-chain and capital-control assessment and the USA rate-regime assessment before any other.
Method
How the country models work
Each country page runs the same architecture: identify the dominant tail channel, quantify its conditional severity, and state where the model loses resolution. Tail behavior is estimated nonparametrically — following Almeida et al. (2017), which avoids the thin-tail distributional assumptions standard VaR imposes on fat-tailed sovereign events.
Per-country tail assessment
For each jurisdiction we publish the dominant shock vector (rate, currency, capital-flow, or default), its estimated conditional severity, and the equity channels that carry it to a concentrated holder.
Stated limitation and update cadence
Country models are recalibrated quarterly and on any structural break (election, default, capital-control change). Sparse tail data means small-sample jurisdictions carry wider error bands — stated on each page, not hidden in a footnote.
Objection
“I’m in tech, not sovereigns — why care?”
Because sovereign stress reaches you through three channels you already depend on. Supply-chain: a hardware or fab disruption in one country reprices your cloud and semiconductor exposure — the kind of event modeled in our cross-border scenario library. Rate: a country’s curve resets the discount rate on your growth equity. Capital-flow: controls or currency stress can trap liquidity precisely during a lock-up you cannot exit. You hold the country risk whether or not you named it.
3 fields · 48-hour document · no call, no sequence.
Frequently asked questions
Does country risk affect a concentrated tech portfolio?
Yes. A 60–90% single-sector book inherits the rate path, supply chain, and capital-control regime of every country its revenue and custodians sit in. Cross-asset correlations near zero in calm markets routinely spike above 0.8 in a sovereign shock, so positions that looked independent fail as one.
How is country-level tail risk measured here?
Tail behavior is estimated nonparametrically, following Almeida et al. (2017), which avoids the thin-tail distributional assumptions standard VaR imposes on fat-tailed sovereign events. Each country model isolates its dominant shock vector, quantifies conditional severity, and states where resolution is lost.
Which countries are covered?
Six jurisdictions: China, USA, France, Italy, Greece, and the UK, plus a live current-environment read of the active regime. Each is published as a standalone diagnostic of one country’s failure modes, not a headline summary.
How often are the country models updated?
Quarterly, and on any structural break — an election, default, or capital-control change. Small-sample jurisdictions carry wider error bands, stated on each page rather than buried in a footnote.
Why should a tech holder care about sovereign risk?
Sovereign stress reaches an equity holder through supply-chain, rate, and capital-flow channels they already depend on. A fab disruption reprices semiconductor exposure, a curve reset moves the discount rate on growth equity, and capital controls can trap liquidity during a lock-up you cannot exit.